Over the past several years, Russia, its government agencies, and affiliated groups have used a combination of social media savvy and disinformation strategies to further Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance Introduction The governments and citizens of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the Baltic states—are subject to daily Russian strategic information operations and propaganda activities that are part of campaigns As Professor of International Politics and Strategy Studies at the University of Reading Colin Gray articulates it, “The defence planner in effect is a practising strategic theorist. The report recommends that the NATO allies send an additional battalion to the Baltics, but strategically organize deployments so as to avoid what could be seen by some as a provocation toward Russia. The presence of To continue reading the in-depth profile on conflict in the Baltic Sea region and learn more about how Radiant Solutions’ unique foundational geospatial datasets can be used to highlight specific locations within the Baltics that are most prone to Russian influence, please subscribe to our exclusive monthly periodical, the Radiant Spotlight here. It contains harsh criticisms towards the Baltic States which do less than they can to strengthen […] Western military planners need to reorganize and align units in such a way that they can handle Russian hybrid warfare, while … Russia Won't Start a (Conventional) War in the Baltics. Russia's actions in the Baltics include a combination of nonviolent covert action to influence or undermine target governments, violent but deniable covert action and traditional overt aggression. When this happens, the … But Russia has many other tools—more effective than covert or overt military aggression—at its disposal to influence the Baltic states. Their significant ethnic Russian populations and enduring dependence on Russia for energy enable Moscow to maintain its status as one the most powerful regional stakeholders. However, rail is one component of a larger issue dogging NATO forces in Europe: rapid troop deployment across NATO and EU member states. The Baltic states’ belonging to the European space isn’t a given. A resurgence of fascism, rampant Russophobia, the ethnic cleansing of local Russian populations, drunk NATO soldiers – this is how Russia portrays and slanders the societies of … his novel, 2017 War with Russia, he anticipates a 2017 Russian invasion of the Baltics through Latvia. Following the incorporation of the Baltic region into the Russian Empire under Peter the Great, the Russian influence grew both in absolute scale and in significance. Disinformation is a tool commonly used by a number of states to sow discord, undermine faith in governing institutions, stoke fear and anxiety, and ultimately achieve certain policy goals. and Latvia (Grigas, 2012). Defense planning is prospective planning for the use of a strategy against an enemy in reality. The Jamestown Foundation, an influential US think tank, published a report in October – “How to defend the Baltic States” written by R.D. Hooker, Jr. The authors of this report assess how unconventional defense plans and capabilities — to include total and comprehensive defense, societal resilience, and resistance strategies — being pursued by the governments of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (referred to as the Baltic states) can deter and counteract Russian hybrid aggression and military attacks in the Baltic region. Throughout the Baltics, certain segments of the population are particularly vulnerable to the aforementioned Russian tactics. Ethnic minority Russian populations and other Russian speakers (such as older Poles and Belarussians) are the most susceptible because they tend to already hold a pro- Russian sentiment. On the one hand, Russia has antagonized Baltic states through its wars in Georgia and Ukraine, on the other hand, deep integration in the EU and NATO has pulled the Baltic states from the Russian … In Eastern Europe and the Baltics, Russia’s primary interests “are to maintain, or regain, its sphere of influence,” according to Jeremy W. Lamoreaux, an expert at Brigham Young University–Idaho who is among the white paper contributors. Vladimir Putin is playing a vast chess game with NATO, and his next move will be to invade the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. And it dominates the supply of energy and electricity to the Baltic states, and has not hesitated to use that leverage to influence these nations. As oil prices, upon which the ruble largely depends, remain depressed, and projected economic growth in Russia is set to remain at just 1.8 percent in 2021, Russia is increasingly reluctant to pay the Baltics for using the region’s ports for exports of oil. Russia needs to distance itself from Much like Georgian provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia, invaded by Russia in 2008, Latvia is a state with a high minority of Russian speakers – 34%. Russian media, disinformation, and propaganda, manipulation of political processes, infiltration of Russian language education, and organization of ethnic Russians through formal and informal foreign policy structures Russian soft power and non-military information influence pose significant threats to the integrity of NATO in the Baltic States. The recent furor over Russian hacking and other interference in the US presidential elections continues to rumble on months into the Trump administration. This article discusses the gradual decrease of Russia's influence in the Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania while considering the increased NATO presence in the region, Baltic energy security, and Baltic Russian-speaking communities. As was the case in Belarus before this year, Russian influence in the civil societies of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia is limited. Russia will remain a destabilising force in the Baltics for the foreseeable future, but energy diversification, efforts against cyber and propaganda offensives and an enhanced NATO presence have done much to counter Russian influence in the region and pull the Baltic States further away from Russia… Not all are ethnic Russians, the numbers include some Ukrainians, Belarusians, Tatars and others. Beginning in 1940 and continuing until they declared independence in the early 1990s, the Russian military servicemen march along the Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Russia. The Kremlin’s aggressive rhetoric directed toward the Baltic states is not a new phenomenon. TV programs, websites and magazines, the channels of Russian disinformation, have been overtaken the Baltic media market. Simply put, Russia's policy toward the Baltic states is a textbook manifestation of Great Power chauvinism which is even more wrongheaded now than it had been earlier. The Baltic states will continue to diversify their energy sources and forge economic and transport links with the broader Nordic-Baltic region. “We need a credible deterrence policy in the Baltic region to influence the Russian calculus to make the costs of interference too high,” Estonia’s President Toomas Hendrik Ilves warned in May. The Baltic Republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania won independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but were only militarily free from post-Soviet influence in 1998. According to Grigas (2012, p. 2), “Russian in-fluence in the Baltics aims to constrain their independence and undermine the political, economic, and civilizational choices they have made.” Rus-sia’s tactics to gain influence in the Baltic region are often covert and coer- While Russian influence is the most obvious in the Balkans, an upsurge of populism in Central Europe has also played into Moscow’s hands, providing sympathetic political parties … Russians in the Baltic states describes self-identifying ethnic Russians and other primary Russian-speaking communities in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, commonly referred to collectively as the Baltic states. Located on the edges of the Russian Federation, the tiny Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are regarde… Russia has been keeping relatively quiet on the global stage of late but make no mistake about it, the country's influence across the world is far-reaching. Instead, it further increased the anti-Russian sentiments in these states. All these cases indicate that the Baltic railway system may remain vulnerable to Russian influence. However, from the perspective of this study, it is the number of Russians that matters most… But the charges now appearing in US media outlets sound very familiar to a group of countries situated on one of the frontlines of the new Cold War: the Baltics. Baltic railway infrastructure continues to be a liability for NATO security on its eastern flank. Reconciliation When it comes to historical reconciliation with the Baltic states, Russia, of course, needs to take the first steps, just as it did with Poland. It has been about three decades since the end of communism in the In this respect, Russia's stance regarding the Baltic states fully comported with its overall European policy. The Crimea Russia also invaded in 2014, also have large Russian minorities. If Russia can demonstrate the relative impotence of NATO alliance structures in combatting Russian influence in the Baltics, this would weaken Alliance cohesion at a time when Moscow’s growing military presence in the region is already raising concerns in Baltic … On the one hand, Russia has antagonized Baltic states through its wars in Georgia and Ukraine, on the other hand, deep integration in the EU and NATO has pulled the Baltic states from the Russian zone of influence. And the tactics vary by region. While Russia is keen to retain its influence in the Baltics, it has more to gain by using non-military methods of doing so.
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